Appendix D: Strategic Decision Tools¶
Purpose: Practical frameworks for high-stakes business decisions: investments, market entry, partnerships, and M&A.
Tool 1: Investment Decision Framework¶
When to Use¶
- Evaluating capital allocation decisions (new product, market, facility, technology)
- Comparing multiple investment opportunities
- Making go/no-go decisions on major initiatives
Decision Criteria Matrix¶
PROJECT: _______________ INVESTMENT: ₹_________ DECISION DATE: _________
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
NPV (Net Present Value):
- Investment: ₹_________
- Cash flows (5 years): ₹_________, ₹_________, ₹_________, ₹_________, ₹_________
- Discount rate (WACC): ___%
- Terminal value: ₹_________
- NPV = ₹_________
Decision rule: NPV > 0 → Accept
IRR (Internal Rate of Return):
- IRR = ___%
- Hurdle rate: ___%
Decision rule: IRR > Hurdle → Accept
Payback Period:
- Years to recover investment: ___ years
- Target: ___ years
Decision rule: Payback < Target → Accept
STRATEGIC ALIGNMENT (Score 1-5)
□ Aligns with core strategy: ___
□ Leverages existing capabilities: ___
□ Addresses key market opportunity: ___
□ Builds competitive advantage: ___
□ Fits with portfolio: ___
Total Strategic Score: ___ / 25
RISK ASSESSMENT (Score 1-5, 5 = High Risk)
□ Technology risk: ___
□ Market risk: ___
□ Execution risk: ___
□ Regulatory risk: ___
□ Competitive risk: ___
Total Risk Score: ___ / 25
DECISION MATRIX
Weight Score Weighted
Financial (NPV) 40% ___ ___
Strategic Fit 30% ___ ___
Risk (inverse) 20% ___ ___
Other factors 10% ___ ___
TOTAL 100% ___
Decision: GO / NO-GO / DEFER
Rationale: _______________________________________
Tool 2: Market Entry Checklist¶
50-Point Assessment for New Market Entry¶
MARKET: _______________ ENTRY MODE: _______________ DATE: _________
PART A: MARKET ATTRACTIVENESS (30 points)
Market Size & Growth (10 points)
□ TAM >$100M (or relevant threshold): ___ / 3
□ CAGR >15%: ___ / 3
□ Growing faster than current markets: ___ / 2
□ Large enough to justify investment: ___ / 2
Competitive Intensity (10 points)
□ <3 dominant players: ___ / 3
□ No player with >40% share: ___ / 3
□ Fragmented competitive landscape: ___ / 2
□ Weak incumbents vulnerable to disruption: ___ / 2
Customer Accessibility (10 points)
□ Clear customer segments identified: ___ / 2
□ Low switching costs from incumbents: ___ / 3
□ Distribution channels accessible: ___ / 3
□ Regulatory barriers manageable: ___ / 2
PART B: STRATEGIC FIT (20 points)
Capability Match (10 points)
□ Existing capabilities transferable: ___ / 3
□ Brand/reputation carries over: ___ / 3
□ Technology/IP applicable: ___ / 2
□ Team has relevant experience: ___ / 2
Financial Feasibility (10 points)
□ Investment within budget: ___ / 3
□ Payback period acceptable (<3 years): ___ / 3
□ Risk acceptable for portfolio: ___ / 2
□ Can self-fund or access capital: ___ / 2
PART C: EXECUTION READINESS (20 points)
Go-to-Market Plan (10 points)
□ Clear value proposition defined: ___ / 3
□ Pricing strategy validated: ___ / 2
□ Distribution plan in place: ___ / 2
□ Marketing/sales plan ready: ___ / 3
Organizational Readiness (10 points)
□ Team identified and committed: ___ / 3
□ Operational plan detailed: ___ / 2
□ Partnerships/vendors lined up: ___ / 2
□ Legal/regulatory compliance addressed: ___ / 3
TOTAL SCORE: ___ / 50
DECISION RUBRIC:
- 40-50: Strong Go (high confidence)
- 30-39: Conditional Go (address gaps first)
- 20-29: Defer (major concerns to resolve)
- <20: No Go (not ready)
SCORE: ___ DECISION: _______________
KEY GAPS TO ADDRESS:
1. _______________________________________________
2. _______________________________________________
3. _______________________________________________
Tool 3: Partnership Evaluation Framework¶
Strategic Partnership Assessment¶
PARTNER: _______________ PARTNERSHIP TYPE: _______________ DATE: _________
STRATEGIC VALUE CREATION
Value to Us:
□ Access to new customers: ___ potential customers/year
□ Technology/capability we lack: _______________________
□ Cost reduction: ₹_________ savings/year
□ Speed to market: __ months faster than build
□ Risk reduction: _________________________________
Value to Partner:
□ Their gain from partnership: _____________________
□ Mutual benefit (not one-sided): Yes / No
□ Long-term strategic fit: Yes / No
PARTNER ASSESSMENT
Financial Health:
□ Revenue: ₹_________ Growth: ___%
□ Profitability: ___ Cash position: ₹_________
□ Credit rating / financial stability: ___________
Score (1-5): ___
Cultural Fit:
□ Values alignment: ___________________________
□ Decision-making speed: Fast / Slow
□ Risk appetite: High / Medium / Low (matches ours?)
□ Previous partnership track record: ___________
Score (1-5): ___
Capability & Reputation:
□ Market reputation: _____________________
□ Relevant capabilities: __________________
□ Customer satisfaction: __________________
□ Innovation track record: ________________
Score (1-5): ___
PARTNERSHIP STRUCTURE
Economic Terms:
□ Revenue/profit share: _______________________
□ Investment required: ₹_________
□ IP ownership: _______________________________
□ Exclusivity: Yes / No (if yes, scope: ______)
Governance:
□ Decision-making process: ___________________
□ Dispute resolution: _________________________
□ Exit clauses: _______________________________
□ Performance metrics: ________________________
RISK ASSESSMENT
Risks:
□ Partner becomes competitor: Likelihood ___ / Impact ___
□ Dependency risk: Likelihood ___ / Impact ___
□ Reputation risk: Likelihood ___ / Impact ___
□ IP leakage: Likelihood ___ / Impact ___
□ Integration complexity: Likelihood ___ / Impact ___
Mitigation:
1. _______________________________________________
2. _______________________________________________
DECISION MATRIX
Weight Score Weighted
Strategic value 35% ___ ___
Partner quality 25% ___ ___
Economic terms 20% ___ ___
Risk (inverse) 20% ___ ___
TOTAL 100% ___
Decision: PROCEED / NEGOTIATE / PASS
Key terms to negotiate: _______________________
Tool 4: M&A Evaluation Framework¶
Acquisition Target Assessment¶
TARGET: _______________ VALUATION: ₹_________ DATE: _________
STRATEGIC RATIONALE (Rate 1-5)
Horizontal (same industry, scale):
□ Market share gain: ___
□ Cost synergies (economies of scale): ___
□ Eliminate competitor: ___
Vertical (supply chain integration):
□ Secure supply/distribution: ___
□ Capture more value chain: ___
Adjacency (new product/market):
□ Access new customers: ___
□ Add new capabilities: ___
□ Enter new geography: ___
Strategic Rationale Score: ___ / 25
Primary rationale: _______________
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Valuation:
- Revenue: ₹_________ EBITDA: ₹_________
- EV/Revenue: ___x EV/EBITDA: ___x
- Comparable multiples: ___x to ___x
Assessment: Overvalued / Fair / Undervalued
Synergies (5-year NPV):
- Revenue synergies: ₹_________
- Cost synergies: ₹_________
- Tax benefits: ₹_________
- Total synergies: ₹_________
- One-time integration costs: ₹_________
- Net synergy value: ₹_________
Value Creation:
- Purchase price: ₹_________
- Stand-alone value: ₹_________
- Synergy value: ₹_________
- Total value: ₹_________
- Premium paid: ___%
- Value created: ₹_________ (positive = good deal)
DUE DILIGENCE CHECKLIST
Financial:
□ 3-year financials audited: Yes / No
□ Revenue quality assessed: _______________
□ Working capital requirements: ₹_________
□ Hidden liabilities identified: ___________
□ Debt and obligations: ₹_________
Commercial:
□ Customer concentration: Top 5 = ___%
□ Customer contracts reviewed: Yes / No
□ Competitive position validated: __________
□ Growth drivers sustainable: Yes / No
Legal:
□ IP ownership confirmed: _________________
□ Litigation risks: _______________________
□ Regulatory approvals needed: ____________
□ Material contracts reviewed: Yes / No
People & Culture:
□ Key person dependencies: _______________
□ Retention plan for key employees: Yes / No
□ Cultural fit assessed: __________________
□ Union/labor considerations: ______________
INTEGRATION PLAN
Day 1 Priorities:
1. _______________________________________________
2. _______________________________________________
3. _______________________________________________
30-60-90 Day Plan:
- 30 days: _______________________________________
- 60 days: _______________________________________
- 90 days: _______________________________________
Integration Budget: ₹_________
Integration Timeline: ___ months
Integration Risk: Low / Medium / High
DECISION SCORECARD
Weight Score Weighted
Strategic fit 30% ___ ___
Financial value 30% ___ ___
Due diligence clean 20% ___ ___
Integration feasibility 20% ___ ___
TOTAL 100% ___
Decision: PROCEED / NEGOTIATE / PASS
If PROCEED:
- Max price: ₹_________
- Key conditions: _________________________________
- Deal-breakers: __________________________________
If NEGOTIATE:
- Target price: ₹_________
- Key terms to improve: ___________________________
If PASS:
- Primary reason: _________________________________
Tool 5: Pivot Decision Tree¶
When to Use¶
- Product-market fit is unclear after sustained effort
- Core metrics are not improving despite iterations
- Market conditions have fundamentally changed
- Runway is limited and current trajectory is unsustainable
- Strategic alternatives need systematic evaluation
Pivot vs. Persist Decision Framework¶
COMPANY: _______________ CURRENT STRATEGY: _______________ DATE: _________
PART 1: PIVOT TRIGGER ASSESSMENT
Quantitative Signals (Score each 0-3: 0=Not Present, 1=Weak, 2=Moderate, 3=Strong)
Market Signals:
□ Market size smaller than projected: ___
□ Market growth slowing: ___
□ Regulatory environment turning adverse: ___
□ Competitive intensity increasing faster than expected: ___
Subtotal: ___ / 12
Product Signals:
□ User engagement declining or flat despite iterations: ___
□ Retention rates below benchmark (define: ___% vs ___% actual): ___
□ Net Promoter Score negative or declining: ___
□ Feature requests consistently outside current scope: ___
Subtotal: ___ / 12
Financial Signals:
□ Unit economics not improving after __ months: ___
□ CAC:LTV ratio worsening: ___
□ Burn rate unsustainable (runway < 12 months): ___
□ Revenue growth below plan by >50%: ___
Subtotal: ___ / 12
TOTAL TRIGGER SCORE: ___ / 36
TRIGGER INTERPRETATION:
- 0-12: Continue current path with optimizations
- 13-24: Serious pivot consideration required
- 25-36: Pivot likely necessary; current path unsustainable
PART 2: PIVOT OPTIONS MATRIX
Option A: _______________
- What changes: ________________________________
- What stays same: _____________________________
- Resources required: ₹_________ / ___ months
- Success probability (honest assessment): ___%
- Upside if successful: ________________________
Option B: _______________
- What changes: ________________________________
- What stays same: _____________________________
- Resources required: ₹_________ / ___ months
- Success probability (honest assessment): ___%
- Upside if successful: ________________________
Option C: Persist with Current Strategy (Control)
- What changes: Optimizations only
- Resources required: Current burn rate
- Success probability: ___%
- Upside if successful: ________________________
PART 3: PIVOT TYPE SELECTION
□ Customer Segment Pivot: Same product, different customer
□ Problem Pivot: Same customer, different problem to solve
□ Solution Pivot: Same problem, different solution approach
□ Channel Pivot: Same product, different distribution
□ Revenue Model Pivot: Same product, different monetization
□ Technology Pivot: Same value prop, different tech stack
□ Platform Pivot: Product → Platform or Platform → Product
□ Business Architecture Pivot: High-margin/low-volume ↔ Low-margin/high-volume
Selected pivot type: _______________
Rationale: _________________________________
PART 4: VALIDATION PLAN BEFORE FULL PIVOT
Minimum Viable Test:
- Hypothesis to test: _________________________
- Test duration: ___ weeks
- Investment required: ₹_________
- Success metrics: ____________________________
- Kill criteria: _______________________________
DECISION:
□ PERSIST: Current strategy with optimizations
□ PIVOT: Execute selected pivot option
□ TEST: Run validation before committing
□ EXIT: Shut down / return capital
Rationale: _________________________________
Key milestones for next review: ______________
Review date: _________
Tool 6: Competitive Response Playbook¶
When to Use¶
- Competitor announces major product launch
- Competitor engages in aggressive pricing
- New entrant disrupts market dynamics
- Competitor makes strategic acquisition
- Market share erosion detected
Competitive Response Framework¶
COMPETITIVE EVENT: _______________ COMPETITOR: _______________ DATE: _________
PART 1: THREAT ASSESSMENT
Event Classification:
□ Pricing action (discount, new tier, freemium)
□ Product launch (new product, major feature)
□ Market expansion (new segment, geography)
□ Strategic move (acquisition, partnership, funding)
□ Positioning change (repositioning, rebranding)
Threat Severity (1-5):
□ Revenue impact potential: ___
□ Customer churn risk: ___
□ Market position threat: ___
□ Competitive moat erosion: ___
□ Talent/team risk: ___
Total Threat Score: ___ / 25
SEVERITY INTERPRETATION:
- 5-10: Monitor only, no response required
- 11-17: Tactical response within existing strategy
- 18-25: Strategic response required, potential pivot
PART 2: COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE
What We Know:
- Competitor's likely motivation: _______________
- Their resource constraints: _________________
- Expected duration: ________________________
- Evidence of success/failure so far: __________
What We Don't Know:
- Key unknowns: _____________________________
- How to find out: __________________________
Customer Impact Assessment:
- Customers at highest risk: __________________
- Why they might switch: _____________________
- What would keep them: ____________________
PART 3: RESPONSE OPTIONS MATRIX
OPTION 1: IGNORE (Do Nothing)
- Rationale for ignoring: ____________________
- Risk of non-response: _____________________
- Conditions that would change decision: _____
Best for: Weak/unsustainable competitor moves, niche segments
OPTION 2: MATCH
- What to match: ___________________________
- Resources required: ₹_________
- Timeline: ___ weeks
- Impact on margins/positioning: _____________
Best for: Pricing attacks in commoditized segments
OPTION 3: COUNTER (Different Response)
- Counter-strategy: _________________________
- How it addresses threat without matching: ___
- Resources required: ₹_________
- Differentiation reinforced: ________________
Best for: Attacks on your weak spots; play to your strengths
OPTION 4: LEAPFROG
- How to go beyond competitor's move: ________
- Investment required: ₹_________
- Timeline: ___ months
- Expected outcome: ________________________
Best for: When you have capability advantage
OPTION 5: RETREAT
- What to give up: __________________________
- Where to reinforce: _______________________
- Resources freed: ₹_________
- New focus areas: _________________________
Best for: Unwinnable battles, strategic reallocation
PART 4: DECISION AND EXECUTION
Selected Response: _______________
Immediate Actions (This Week):
1. _______________________________________________
2. _______________________________________________
3. _______________________________________________
Communication Plan:
- Internal team: _______________________________
- Customers: __________________________________
- Market/Press: ________________________________
Success Metrics:
- Leading indicator: ____________________________
- Lagging indicator: ____________________________
- Review timeline: ___ weeks
ESCALATION TRIGGERS:
If _______________ occurs, escalate to: _______________
Tool 7: Risk Assessment Matrix¶
When to Use¶
- Before major strategic initiative launch
- Quarterly strategic review
- New market entry planning
- Product launch risk evaluation
- Investment decision support
Strategic Risk Assessment Framework¶
INITIATIVE/PROJECT: _______________ DATE: _________
PART 1: RISK IDENTIFICATION
Strategic Risks:
1. _______________________________________________
2. _______________________________________________
3. _______________________________________________
Operational Risks:
1. _______________________________________________
2. _______________________________________________
3. _______________________________________________
Financial Risks:
1. _______________________________________________
2. _______________________________________________
3. _______________________________________________
External Risks:
1. _______________________________________________
2. _______________________________________________
3. _______________________________________________
PART 2: RISK SCORING MATRIX
LIKELIHOOD SCALE:
1 = Rare (<10% probability)
2 = Unlikely (10-25%)
3 = Possible (25-50%)
4 = Likely (50-75%)
5 = Almost Certain (>75%)
IMPACT SCALE:
1 = Negligible (<₹10L impact or <1% revenue)
2 = Minor (₹10L-50L or 1-5% revenue)
3 = Moderate (₹50L-2Cr or 5-15% revenue)
4 = Significant (₹2Cr-10Cr or 15-30% revenue)
5 = Severe (>₹10Cr or >30% revenue)
RISK SCORING TABLE:
| # | Risk Description | Likelihood (1-5) | Impact (1-5) | Risk Score (L×I) | Priority |
|---|------------------|------------------|--------------|------------------|----------|
| 1 | ________________ | ___ | ___ | ___ | ___ |
| 2 | ________________ | ___ | ___ | ___ | ___ |
| 3 | ________________ | ___ | ___ | ___ | ___ |
| 4 | ________________ | ___ | ___ | ___ | ___ |
| 5 | ________________ | ___ | ___ | ___ | ___ |
| 6 | ________________ | ___ | ___ | ___ | ___ |
| 7 | ________________ | ___ | ___ | ___ | ___ |
| 8 | ________________ | ___ | ___ | ___ | ___ |
RISK PRIORITY MATRIX:
IMPACT
Low(1-2) Med(3) High(4-5)
High(4-5) MEDIUM HIGH CRITICAL
L Med(3) LOW MEDIUM HIGH
I Low(1-2) LOW LOW MEDIUM
K
E
L
I
H
O
O
D
PART 3: MITIGATION PLANNING
For each HIGH or CRITICAL risk:
RISK #___: _______________
Risk Owner: _______________
Mitigation Strategy:
□ AVOID: Eliminate the risk by changing approach
Action: _______________________________________
□ REDUCE: Lower likelihood or impact
Action: _______________________________________
□ TRANSFER: Shift risk to another party (insurance, contract)
Action: _______________________________________
□ ACCEPT: Acknowledge and monitor (for low-priority risks)
Action: _______________________________________
Mitigation Cost: ₹_________
Residual Risk Score (after mitigation): ___
Contingency Plan (if risk materializes):
_________________________________________________
Early Warning Indicators:
1. _______________________________________________
2. _______________________________________________
PART 4: RISK MONITORING DASHBOARD
| Risk | Owner | Status | Last Review | Next Review | Trend |
|------|-------|--------|-------------|-------------|-------|
| ___ | ___ | G/Y/R | _________ | _________ | ↑/→/↓ |
| ___ | ___ | G/Y/R | _________ | _________ | ↑/→/↓ |
| ___ | ___ | G/Y/R | _________ | _________ | ↑/→/↓ |
OVERALL RISK ASSESSMENT:
□ LOW: Proceed with standard monitoring
□ MEDIUM: Proceed with enhanced monitoring and mitigation
□ HIGH: Proceed only with explicit leadership approval and robust mitigation
□ CRITICAL: Do not proceed until risk profile improves
Decision: _______________ Approved by: _______________ Date: _________
Tool 8: Strategic Initiative Matrix¶
When to Use¶
- Annual strategic planning
- Quarterly initiative prioritization
- Resource allocation decisions
- Portfolio balancing
- Opportunity cost assessment
Initiative Prioritization Framework¶
PLANNING PERIOD: _______________ DATE: _________
PART 1: INITIATIVE INVENTORY
List all potential strategic initiatives:
| # | Initiative | Owner | Est. Investment | Est. Timeline |
|---|------------|-------|-----------------|---------------|
| 1 | __________ | _____ | ₹_____________ | ___ months |
| 2 | __________ | _____ | ₹_____________ | ___ months |
| 3 | __________ | _____ | ₹_____________ | ___ months |
| 4 | __________ | _____ | ₹_____________ | ___ months |
| 5 | __________ | _____ | ₹_____________ | ___ months |
| 6 | __________ | _____ | ₹_____________ | ___ months |
| 7 | __________ | _____ | ₹_____________ | ___ months |
| 8 | __________ | _____ | ₹_____________ | ___ months |
Total Available Budget: ₹_____________
Total Available Capacity: ___ FTEs / ___ months
PART 2: IMPACT-EFFORT SCORING
IMPACT CRITERIA (Score 1-5 each):
□ Revenue potential
□ Strategic importance
□ Competitive advantage created
□ Customer value delivered
□ Long-term scalability
EFFORT CRITERIA (Score 1-5 each, 5 = High Effort):
□ Financial investment required
□ Time to completion
□ Team capacity required
□ Technical complexity
□ Organizational change required
SCORING TABLE:
| # | Initiative | Impact (Sum) | Effort (Sum) | Ratio (I/E) | Quadrant |
|---|------------|--------------|--------------|-------------|----------|
| 1 | __________ | ___ / 25 | ___ / 25 | ____ | _____ |
| 2 | __________ | ___ / 25 | ___ / 25 | ____ | _____ |
| 3 | __________ | ___ / 25 | ___ / 25 | ____ | _____ |
| 4 | __________ | ___ / 25 | ___ / 25 | ____ | _____ |
| 5 | __________ | ___ / 25 | ___ / 25 | ____ | _____ |
| 6 | __________ | ___ / 25 | ___ / 25 | ____ | _____ |
| 7 | __________ | ___ / 25 | ___ / 25 | ____ | _____ |
| 8 | __________ | ___ / 25 | ___ / 25 | ____ | _____ |
IMPACT-EFFORT MATRIX:
EFFORT
Low (5-12) High (13-25)
High QUICK WINS BIG BETS
IMPACT (13-25) (Do First) (Prioritize Carefully)
Low FILL-INS AVOID
(5-12) (If Capacity) (Deprioritize)
PART 3: DEPENDENCY MAPPING
Which initiatives depend on others?
| Initiative | Depends On | Blocks |
|------------|------------|--------|
| __________ | __________ | ______ |
| __________ | __________ | ______ |
| __________ | __________ | ______ |
Critical Path Initiatives (must be done first):
1. _______________________________________________
2. _______________________________________________
PART 4: FINAL PRIORITIZATION
Tier 1 - MUST DO (This Quarter/Year):
| Priority | Initiative | Investment | Expected Return | Timeline |
|----------|------------|------------|-----------------|----------|
| 1 | __________ | ₹_________ | ______________ | _________ |
| 2 | __________ | ₹_________ | ______________ | _________ |
| 3 | __________ | ₹_________ | ______________ | _________ |
Tier 2 - SHOULD DO (If Resources Permit):
| Priority | Initiative | Investment | Expected Return | Timeline |
|----------|------------|------------|-----------------|----------|
| 4 | __________ | ₹_________ | ______________ | _________ |
| 5 | __________ | ₹_________ | ______________ | _________ |
Tier 3 - DEFER (Future Consideration):
| Initiative | Reason for Deferral | Revisit Date |
|------------|---------------------|--------------|
| __________ | ___________________ | ____________ |
| __________ | ___________________ | ____________ |
Tier 4 - KILL (Not Pursuing):
| Initiative | Reason |
|------------|--------|
| __________ | ______ |
| __________ | ______ |
RESOURCE ALLOCATION SUMMARY:
| Tier | # Initiatives | Total Investment | % of Budget |
|------|---------------|------------------|-------------|
| Tier 1 | ___ | ₹_____________ | ___% |
| Tier 2 | ___ | ₹_____________ | ___% |
| Reserve | - | ₹_____________ | ___% |
| TOTAL | ___ | ₹_____________ | 100% |
PORTFOLIO BALANCE CHECK:
□ Mix of quick wins and big bets: Yes / No
□ Not over-indexed on any single initiative: Yes / No
□ Resource constraints respected: Yes / No
□ Dependencies sequenced correctly: Yes / No
□ Reserve maintained for opportunities: Yes / No
Approved by: _______________ Date: _________
Next Review: _________
Decision Tool Usage Guide¶
When to Use Each Tool¶
Tool 1: Investment Decision Framework
- New product development ($1M+ investment)
- Factory/infrastructure capex
- Technology platform investments
- Major marketing campaigns
Tool 2: Market Entry Checklist
- Geographic expansion (domestic or international)
- New customer segment targeting
- Adjacent product category entry
- New channel development
Tool 3: Partnership Evaluation
- Strategic alliances
- Joint ventures
- Co-marketing agreements
- Technology licensing
- Supply/distribution partnerships
Tool 4: M&A Evaluation
- Acquisition targets
- Merger opportunities
- Asset purchases
- Acqui-hires (talent acquisition)
Tool 5: Pivot Decision Tree
- Product-market fit uncertain after 12+ months
- Core metrics declining despite iterations
- Runway < 12 months with current trajectory
- Market fundamentally changed since founding
Tool 6: Competitive Response Playbook
- Competitor price war or aggressive discounting
- Major competitor product launch
- New entrant with disruptive model
- Market share erosion detected
Tool 7: Risk Assessment Matrix
- Before any major strategic initiative
- Quarterly strategy reviews
- Board presentations requiring risk overview
- Post-mortem analysis of past decisions
Tool 8: Strategic Initiative Matrix
- Annual strategic planning cycles
- Quarterly resource allocation reviews
- When facing multiple competing priorities
- Portfolio rebalancing decisions
Best Practices¶
- Use Early: Apply frameworks at concept stage, not after decision is made
- Quantify: Convert subjective assessments to numbers where possible
- Independent Review: Have someone not involved score the decision
- Red Team: Assign someone to argue against the decision
- Document: Record decision rationale for post-mortem learning
Common Decision Biases to Avoid¶
- Confirmation Bias: Seeking only data that supports desired decision
- Sunk Cost Fallacy: Continuing because of past investment
- Anchoring: Over-relying on first information received
- Overconfidence: Underestimating risks and overestimating returns
- Groupthink: Team consensus suppressing dissent
Tool 5: Post-Decision Review Template¶
Purpose¶
Structured learning from strategic decisions, both successful and unsuccessful. The goal is not blame but pattern recognition for future decisions.
When to Use¶
- 6-12 months after major strategic decision implementation
- After any pivot or strategy abandonment
- Annual strategic review cycles
- Before making similar decisions
The Template¶
POST-DECISION REVIEW
Decision: _______________________________________________
Date Made: _______________ Review Date: _______________
Decision Owner: _______________ Reviewer: _______________
PART A: DECISION CONTEXT (What we knew then)
Original Problem/Opportunity:
_________________________________________________________
Key Assumptions at Decision Time:
1. ____________________________________________________
2. ____________________________________________________
3. ____________________________________________________
Alternatives Considered:
□ Alternative 1: ________________________________________
□ Alternative 2: ________________________________________
□ Why rejected: ________________________________________
Decision Criteria Used:
□ Financial (NPV, IRR, payback): _________________________
□ Strategic fit: _________________________________________
□ Risk profile: __________________________________________
□ Resource requirements: _________________________________
Confidence Level at Decision: ___% (1-100)
PART B: OUTCOME ASSESSMENT
Actual Results vs. Expectations:
| Metric | Expected | Actual | Variance |
|---------------------|-------------|-------------|----------|
| Revenue | ___ | ___ | ___% |
| Costs | ___ | ___ | ___% |
| Timeline | ___ | ___ | ___ mths |
| Market response | ___ | ___ | ___ |
| Competitive reaction| ___ | ___ | ___ |
Overall Outcome:
□ Exceeded expectations
□ Met expectations
□ Below expectations
□ Significantly below / Failed
PART C: ASSUMPTION AUDIT
Which assumptions proved correct?
1. ____________________________________________________
2. ____________________________________________________
Which assumptions proved wrong?
1. ____________________________________________________
- Why wrong: _________________________________________
- Could we have known? Yes / No / Partially
- Signal we missed: ___________________________________
2. ____________________________________________________
- Why wrong: _________________________________________
- Could we have known? Yes / No / Partially
- Signal we missed: ___________________________________
External factors not anticipated:
1. ____________________________________________________
2. ____________________________________________________
PART D: PROCESS EVALUATION
Decision Process Quality (1-5):
□ Problem framing: ___
□ Information gathering: ___
□ Alternative generation: ___
□ Risk assessment: ___
□ Implementation planning: ___
What we did well:
1. ____________________________________________________
2. ____________________________________________________
What we did poorly:
1. ____________________________________________________
2. ____________________________________________________
Biases identified in retrospect:
□ Confirmation bias: ___________________________________
□ Overconfidence: ______________________________________
□ Anchoring: ___________________________________________
□ Sunk cost: ___________________________________________
□ Groupthink: __________________________________________
PART E: LESSONS & ACTIONS
Key Learnings:
1. ____________________________________________________
2. ____________________________________________________
3. ____________________________________________________
Process Improvements for Future:
1. ____________________________________________________
2. ____________________________________________________
Signals to Monitor Going Forward:
1. ____________________________________________________
2. ____________________________________________________
Would We Make the Same Decision Again?
□ Yes, with same information
□ Yes, but with modifications: ___________________________
□ No, here's why: _______________________________________
SIGN-OFF
Decision Owner: _____________ Date: _____________
Reviewer: _____________ Date: _____________
Best Practice: Decision Journal¶
Maintain a decision journal with: - Decision date and brief description - Key assumptions (3-5 bullets) - Expected outcome and timeline - Confidence level (%) - Review date scheduled
This enables: - Pattern recognition across decisions - Calibration of confidence estimates - Identification of systematic biases - Institutional memory building
Chapter References:
- Chapter 20: Growth Strategy Frameworks - Growth strategies and initiative prioritization
- Chapter 23: Geographic Expansion - Market entry decisions and international strategy
- Chapter 27: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty - Decision theory, scenario planning, real options
- Chapter 30: Strategic Pivots & Turnarounds - Pivot decision frameworks and turnaround playbooks
Related Content¶
Key Chapter Connections¶
- Chapter 20: Growth Strategy Frameworks - Growth strategy selection and portfolio prioritization
- Chapter 23: Geographic Expansion - Market entry assessment and expansion timing
- Chapter 27: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty - Decision theory, biases, and high-stakes choices
- Chapter 30: Strategic Pivots & Turnarounds - Pivot vs. persist decisions and turnaround frameworks
Complementary Appendices¶
- Appendix A: Strategy Frameworks Library - Analytical frameworks for situation assessment
- Appendix C: Quantitative Analysis Tools - Financial analysis for investment and M&A decisions
- Appendix F: Glossary - Terms and concepts used in decision frameworks
Navigation¶
| Previous | Next | Home |
|---|---|---|
| Appendix C: Quantitative Analysis Tools | Appendix E: Case Study Index | Table of Contents |
Appendix D: Strategic Decision Tools Version 1.0 | November 2025 Part of "The Strategy Engine" by [Author]